Predictions made in 2025
2026
Mark Zuckerberg: “We’re working on a number of coding agents inside Meta… I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we’ll reach the point where most of the code that’s going toward these efforts is written by AI. And I don’t mean autocomplete.”
Bindu Reddy: “true AGI that will automate work is at least 18 months away.”
Elon Musk: “I think we are quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year. If it doesn’t happen this year, next year for sure. A digital superintelligence defined as smarter than any human at anything.”
Emad Mostaque: “For any job that you can do on the other side of a screen, an AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year.”
David Patterson: “There is zero chance we won’t reach AGI by the end of next year. My definition of AGI is the human-to-AI transition point – AI capable of doing all jobs.”
Eric Schmidt: “It’s likely in my opinion that you’re gonna see world-class mathematicians emerge in the next one year that are AI based, and world-class programmers that’re gonna appear within the next one or two years”
Julian Schrittwieser: “Models will be able to autonomously work for full days (8 working hours) by mid-2026.”
Mustafa Suleyman: “it can take actions over infinitely long time horizons… that capability alone is breathtaking… we basically have that by the end of next year.”
Vector Taelin: “AGI is coming in 2026, more likely than not”
François Chollet: “2026 [when the AI bubble bursts]? What cannot go on forever eventually stops.”
Peter Wildeford: “Currently the world doesn’t have any operational 1GW+ data centers. However, it is very likely we will see fully operational 1GW data centers before mid-2026.”
Will Brown: “registering a prediction that by this time next year, there will be at least 5 serious players in the west releasing great open models”
Davidad: “I would guess that by December 2026 the RSI loop on algorithms will probably be closed”
Teortaxes: “I predict that on Spring Festival Gala (Feb 16 2026) or ≤1 week of that we will see at least one Chinese company credibly show off with hundreds of robots.”
Ben Hoffman: “By EoY 2026 I don’t expect this to be a solved problem, though I expect people to find workarounds that involve lowered standards: https://benjaminrosshoffman.com/llms-for-language-learning/” (post describes possible uses of LLMs for language learning)
Gary Marcus: “Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
Testingthewaters: “I believe that within 6 months [Feb 2026] this line of research [online in-sequence learning] will produce a small natural-language capable model that will perform at the level of a model like GPT-4, but with improved persistence and effectively no “context limit” since it is constantly learning and updating weights.”
